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A Futurist’s Look at Technology By Art Gillis Jan 18, 2006 at 12:29 PM ET Twice a month I attend meetings at the Institute of Management Consultants, where I’ve been a member since 1979. Why do I go there? A quick answer is, exposure to knowledge and observing the world as something other than banking. Last night’s meeting was not only thought-provoking, it was mind-changing. I didn’t have to take notes because the points were captured in real-time and burned in to the cerebral database. David Smith was the presenter. With a name like that one has to look carefully to find him on Google. He’s not the David Smith who imports Indonesian furniture, or the sculptor, or the editor of the London Times. This David Smith is Vice President of Technology Futures, Inc., based in Austin, TX. 1. It started with a definition of technology I had never heard before. Technology is not a thing. Technology is knowledge to reach an objective. 2. Physics is over. We’re entering a world where previous laws won’t dictate solutions. Physical capacities will become obsolete. Gee, how I so loved saying, “For every action, there’s an equal and opposite reaction.” 3. The complexity of activities coming at us will mean we need automated agents to handle things for us. It’s like a Jeeves telling us there’s no way you can handle today’s Internet workload so I prioritized everything for you and trashed the 289 meaningless spam messages. 4. Maybe the human will become obsolete. Things will deal with things. 5. When Mr. Smith was asked if the real villain that caused the decent of U.S. excellence was the Government, he quickly said “No.” The CEOs of the top 100 corporations are, as are the mandates of Wall Street. Mind you, half of the Fortune 100s are Mr. Smith’s clients. Now there’s a guy you have to admire. He’ll bite the hand that feeds him when he believes something is true. 6. And has this Mr. Smith been to Washington? You betcha, and not at the staid old agencies like the Department of Labor, but at the CIA, Homeland Security, National Institutes of Health and DOD. 7. What about universities as the breeding grounds for new solutions? Universities are too busy managing budgets and protecting their turf. Collaboration is dead. Universities don’t want to collaborate with other universities. It’s like the old saying, would Macy’s tell Gimbels? One would think that universities are going to go the IPO route. There’s Wall Street again. 8. If it’s not real-time, it’s not useful. Everything is going to be real-time. Life is moving too fast to have to wait for an answer. Consumers will be tracked at the mall from one store to another and their purchases will tell volumes about their habits. Telemarketers will be calling your cell phone as you enter a competitor’s store, telling you it’s cheaper at their store, four down and to the left, and pass the ice cream vendor. You’re too fat already. Sorry, but these last remarks are my own, not Mr. Smith’s. 9. Does that sound like privacy invasion? Mr. Smith says privacy was first violated with the paper check. There is no privacy. But there is a difference between privacy and security. There are some security measures that will work in the future. For example, if an intrusion is detected, the data on a smart card can be erased in less than one nanosecond rendering it invalid to the perpetrator. 10. And speaking of real-time, forget alpha test or beta test. In pursuit of the marketshare goal, companies will be releasing new products so fast, they won’t worry about, “Do they work?” And forget about market research before product development. If you have an idea, build it. There’s no time to find out if people will buy it. That reminded me of some of the dot-coms and why they failed. Do I want someone else squeezing my lettuce? 11. If your car is less than ten years old, the computer in it is more powerful than a Cray Research Supercomputer. If you never heard of Cray, then your coming out party occurred in 1988. 12. Try to name an appliance that sells for $75 or more that doesn’t have a computer chip in it. Someone said vacuum cleaner. Mr. Smith recited so many things the chip controls in vacuum cleaners, that I decided to use ours as a backup if I lose my laptop. 13. Newly developed deterrents will prevent Internet intrusions and viruses for 19 hours. (another Smith snippet). After that, some kid will figure out how to overcome the new deterrent and break in. 14. Little snippets of data work wonders on audiences. Here are a couple. In the manufacturing and assembly process of building an airplane, Boeing does less than 8% of it. 92% is outsourced. China produces more PhDs in engineering and science than any other country. India is second. It made me think of other possibilities. Should the U.S. airline industry outsource to Boeing? If they don’t want to build them, maybe they should fly them. Should MIT outsource to IIT (India Institute of Technology)? Should the Pentagon outsource to Vietnam? Vietnam is better at fighting useless wars than we are. Should FEMA outsource to Florida? Florida had five or six hurricanes in one year and yet that state seems to work. You’re doin’ a heck of a job, Jebbie. The possibilities are endless. Maybe the Congress should be outsourced to the Parliament. After observing the clowns who were judging Judge Alito, that might just be a huge improvement. If we outsource all the tough jobs, then maybe we can sit back and enjoy the two industries we’re really good at - sports and entertainment. Wasn’t that a beautiful dress Charlize Theron was wearing at the Golden Globes? It was outsourced to rue Saint Roche, and in my opinion, that’s OK. The last time the west side of NYC took a stab at haute couture was for Eleanor Roosevelt’s appearance at the Democratic Convention in Chicago. Her speech was great, but NYC deserved to lose the fashion industry. When the meeting ended, I noticed there was still a lot of wine left. Too bad we were all sober. And no one was handing out Prozaks. Maybe I can catch part of the game when I get home. Topics: BS&T Contributors » Weblog Main | » View Entries By Topic | » View Entries By Date This is a public forum. CMP Media and its affiliates are not responsible for and do not control what is posted herein. CMP Media makes no warranties or guarantees concerning any advice dispensed by its staff members or readers. Community standards in the message center do not permit hate language, excessive profanity, or other patently offensive language. 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